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Forums > CapEx Sigma Stock Fund > Topic: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness
| Dec 14th 2011, 04:51 Marishka Ixito |
SSF valuation and relative attractiveness | |
| I don't know where some people get their abacus, but maybe there's a few beads missing here and there. quote from a post elsewhere: "Sigma: Price - By Using the current prices of each stock in the fund by Bid and Ask compared to the current Bid/Ask of the fund - the Sigma fund is way under- valued. By using that method alone the fund should be priced at .38 X .54. " source: http://intlstockexchange.com/new_site/punbb/viewtopic.php?pid=18397#p18397 Based on the bid/ask prices (just like Mr.Tomsen claims to have used) for the stocks in the SSF fund, my own calculation gets these results. EARN 2.67 (mid-price) x 18113 shares = 48,361 L$ FKH 9.10 x 7174 = 65,283 L$ LLC 2.575 x 17778 = 45,778 L$ SEC 1.42 x 52747 = 74,900 L$ SHOP 0.17 x 266666 = 45,333 L$ VHEA 2.58 x 19200 = 49,536 L$ VSIF 1.025 x 41739 = 42,782 L$ YSL 19.795 x 2400 = 47,508 L$ Total fund value (based on mid-prices for the shares in the fund): 419,483 L$ Value per share: 419,483 / 1,608,333 = 0.26 L$ Undervalued? Yes at 0.21 L$ per share SSF seems somewhat undervalued, but nowhere near as much as Mr.Tomsen would have you believe. (He may have missed a reverse split somewhere). As for the SSF dividend, quote from same article: "My calculations give this fund a 32% dividend yield (8% for the Quarter alone)." Form your opinion yourself, but don't be misled by calculation mistakes. These shareholdings of the SSF fund generate a monthly dividend income for SSF of around 3,000 L$, based on the last paid dividends, or roughly 0.002 L$ per SSF share. Calculated at a shareprice of 0.21 L$ for SSF at the time I write this, that translates into a dividend yield of around 12% p.a. The actual expected dividend will be somewhat higher than that because of the special arrangements made for all the greek funds, so that doesn't set the SSF apart from the rest. Oh, and I donot own any SSF shares at this point, nor do I plan to buy any (unless there'd be some huge sell-off) so I don't have an interest in this either way. kind regards, Marishka |
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| Dec 14th 2011, 09:26 Skip Oceanlane |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness | |
| Marishka: I guess I just look at stock here differently. To me, the real value is what is paid in dividends. A stock can have a billion Lindens of assets behind it, but if it pays no dividends, to me it's worthless. Like I said above the way I setup these Greek Funds was so that it would always pay a dividend every quarter. Right now, there are L$22,616.13 to pay out. With 1,608,333 total shares that's a projected payment of .0140618 per share. After companies pay dividends the first of January, that will go up - so I think that's a good stock to buy considering the price is really low at .20L per share. You should be more interested in buying SSF shares ;-) Skip |
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| Dec 14th 2011, 14:48 Marishka Ixito |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness | |
| Skip, Like I said, anyone can form their own opinion about whether or not certain shares are a good investment. All I wanted to do is debunk the notion SSF shares would be worth 40 cents or more based on the shareholdings in the fund. What people are willing to pay for the shares is entirely their business of course. If people want to drive up the shareprice based on a next dividend that will be largely based on incidental past dividends, then by all means be my guest. But to buy into the 32% dividend yield "estimate" from MrTomsen would be ill-advised indeed. kind regards, Marishka |
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| Dec 17th 2011, 11:56 Arbi Tomsen |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness
Edited by author Dec 17th 2011, 12:16 |
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| This is what I came up with for dividend calculation on SSF: shares 10 11 12 Accrued EARN 18113 .054 .050 .054 7553.49 FKH 7174 .050 .020 .020 4842.45 LLC 17778 .001 .001 .001 520.08 SEC 52747 .024 .01 .00 2730.00 SHOP 266666 0 0 0 0.00 VHEA 19200 .02 .05 .032 4637.57 VSIF 41739 .01 0 0 4257.38 Total: 24540.53 / 1608333 = .015 per share Now, CAPX is the one paying the dividend so my calculations may not match what is actually being paid. Either way - That is a pretty good yield; plus VSIF will be paying another dividend before the year is closed out. My spreadsheet rounds out to 5 decimals - the table above is to 3 decimals. My abacus was not missing beads - it apparently had an extra bead in it - as I did not catch that LLC had a reverse stock split. Therefore, the total shares is 17,778 not 177,777 - which does make a big difference. I will revise my calculations accordingly. That being said - the dividend is still the best of all the funds. |
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| Dec 18th 2011, 02:31 Marishka Ixito |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness
Edited by author Dec 18th 2011, 02:33 |
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| Arbi, Your abacus is still in need of replacement. Earn paid 0.1579622 L$ per share in dividends after Oct 1. Earn Shares held by SSF 18113, makes for 2861 L$ in received dividend by SSF FKH paid 0.09 per share in that period, translates to 7174 x 0.09 = 645 L$ LLC paid 0.03627 per share (taking the reverse split into account), translates to 17778 x 0.03627 = 644 L$ SEC paid .024 per share (2 months only, the sep dividend was paid before the last SSF dividend), makes 52747 x 0.024 = 1265 L$ SHOP paid nothing VHEA paid 0.0825 (2 months, same story as for SEC), makes 19200 x 0.0825 = 1584 L$ VSIF paid 0.10 per share, makes 41739 x 0.1 = 4173 L$ In total SSF received 11172 L$ in dividends since the last SSF-dividend was paid, not 24540. Even so, to consider this a representative quarter of dividend earnings for the fund would be quite erroneous, since the VSIF dividend was an extraordinary one. Granted, VSIF will pay another dividend before the year is out, and it could possibly be substantial, in view of Legolas' policy for VSIF. But with all respect for Legolas, paying out capital gains as dividends will prove a tough nut to crack in the long run (they need to be realized in order to pay the dividend), plus, it'll result in more volatile dividends. I hope you didn't put too many people on the wrong foot. kind regards, Marishka |
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| Dec 18th 2011, 05:36 Legolas Delgado |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness | |
| Yah. I wouldn't count on a dividend like the one I am going to pay soon for VSIF being paid every month. I will grow the fund and as Marishka said, I have to realize those gains. Which means finding buyers at the new higher levels. Sometimes thats hard. I had been trying to sell off SAS, SLG, and SSF since I became CEO of VSIF and I wasn't even trying to make a profit, just break even. To be honest I can't even comment on how much I think I will be able to pay month to month in dividends, all I can say is I will give my strongest efforts to help VSIF grow. |
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| Dec 18th 2011, 05:55 Marishka Ixito |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness | |
| Legolas, I understand your gist, but your choice of words is unlucky I think. As I understood your policy for VSIF it is not to grow the fund, policy is to keep the value stable at a 1 L$ per share target, while paying as high dividends as possible. Even though it may not always be possible to realize capital gains at fair price fast enough, that should remain the goal, please no change of plan already. GMC is your growth fund, VSIF is the dividend fund. kind regards, Marishka |
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| Dec 18th 2011, 06:21 Legolas Delgado |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness | |
| What you just said is correct. | ||
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| Dec 19th 2011, 09:45 Arbi Tomsen |
Re: SSF valuation and relative attractiveness
Edited by author Dec 19th 2011, 09:56 |
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| Lesson learned and the crow isn't very tasty. Thanks for looking over my shoulder Marishka. When one thing stands out like SSF did on my spreadsheet - triple check your math. The formula is sound, but it doesn't work so well when it is pointed at the wrong cells. An error that is easy to make when you keep copying sheets and forgetting to adjust where things are pointing. You want a job Marishka? SSF still isn't a bad buy, however, if anyone bot the shares based on my flawed advice and they regret it, I am offering to buy those shares at your cost basis. This offer will stand until 12/31/11 - and will expire on 1/1/2012. The shares must have been purchased between 12/13/11 and 12/19/11. You may contact me at slice.trades@gmail.com. |
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